OUTLIER BLOG / RACE GUIDEHYROX GUIDE · EXPERIMENTAL PROJECTION

HYROX · Singles divisions

SHOULD I RACE
IN PRO OR
IN OPEN?

Choose your division based on the weights you can sustain, the experience you have built and the goal of your next race.

Understand the differences between Open and Pro and use your own result to explore a time projection with a margin and context.

Find results and free previews in the hub

Explore the calculator

The challenge of each division

OPEN AND PRO:
WHAT CHANGES IN HYROX?

Both Singles divisions include eight 1 km runs alternating with eight stations in the same order. Pro increases the weights at five stations; the 1,000 m SkiErg, 80 m burpee broad jumps and 1,000 m row stay the same.

Open and Pro have separate rankings. Standard Pro entry does not require a qualifying time; the Elite Series has a separate selection process. See the official distinction.

Women: weights by station
StationOpenPro
Sled push50 m102 kg152 kg
Sled pull50 m78 kg103 kg
Farmers carry200 m2 × 16 kg2 × 24 kg
Sandbag lunges100 m10 kg20 kg
Wall balls100 repetitions4 kg6 kg
Men: weights by station
StationOpenPro
Sled push50 m152 kg202 kg
Sled pull50 m103 kg153 kg
Farmers carry200 m2 × 24 kg2 × 32 kg
Sandbag lunges100 m20 kg30 kg
Wall balls100 repetitions6 kg9 kg

Sled weights include the sled. Farmers carry uses two implements. The wall ball target is 2.70 m for women and 3.00 m for men in both divisions. Source: official Singles 26/27 rulebook, sections 4.1 and 8.8, accessed on October 21, 2026. Check the version and your event guide before entering.

The practical question is how you sustain the heavier work throughout the race. A good finish time helps describe your level, but does not reveal on its own where you paused, lost pace or struggled at the stations.

A reference for comparison

HOW MUCH COULD
YOUR TIME CHANGE?

The calculator explores this question using results in the OUTLIER dataset. There are four separate relationships: men Open → Pro, men Pro → Open, women Open → Pro and women Pro → Open. One group's ratio is not borrowed by another, and reversing the direction requires a separate fit.

  1. Search your name across all available races and select a Singles entry.
  2. Check the details and tell us whether you raced again on the same day.
  3. Explore a scenario 7 to 30 days apart and read the range alongside the error observed in your group.

You can also try anonymized examples. All four combinations are exploratory and have different levels of uncertainty. The calculator is free, requires no registration and does not replace the paid full assessment.

Open / Pro calculator

ONE RACE. ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE.

Use your result from the available races or explore an example. No registration.

1Choose your scenario

2View the projection

A RANGE,
RATHER THAN A PROMISE.

Search your name, choose an entry and check its details. The calculator identifies the source division and projects the other when sufficient data is available.

This projection alone does not indicate whether you are ready to race in another division. It is not the paid full assessment either.

Use the projection to inform your decision

WHICH DIVISION MAKES SENSE
FOR YOUR NEXT RACE?

Use the estimate to plan a time scenario. To choose your division, also consider your training, station performance and goal for that event. These criteria are OUTLIER editorial guidance, without a universal cutoff.

When to consider Open

If your goal is to learn the race format, build consistency at the stations or compete for a time in this division, Open can be a reasonable choice. That also applies to experienced athletes who want to race better with these weights.

Consider whether your current goal is consistent execution, managing breaks or improving your pace between stations.

When to consider Pro

If you want to race in the heavier division, look at your execution with Pro weights and how you return to running afterward. Moving the weight in one isolated attempt does not establish how you will sustain the full sequence.

Discuss breaks, technique and pace in specific sessions with your coach. An appealing calculator projection does not settle that assessment.

Two athletes can reach the same finish time in different ways: one gains time running and loses it at stations; another does the reverse. That is why we do not use a rule such as “under 60 minutes, go Pro.” Your goal and your response to the weights complete the decision.

Read your result in context

A RANGE TO
GUIDE YOUR CHOICE.

The projection describes an observed relationship between results. It does not isolate changes in training, recovery, strategy or conditions at each race.

Men Pro → Open: what was the error?

In the historical men's Pro → Open test, the asymmetric range covered 85.9% of results, weighting each athlete equally. There were 128 pairs from 124 athletes at 14 target events. Mean total width was 10min04s, and mean absolute error of the central prediction was 3min18s. This is observed sample coverage, not an individual chance of accuracy.

Women Pro → Open: what was the error?

Experimental projection fitted with 62 pairs from 61 athletes. In the full historical comparison, with 37 pairs from 37 athletes at 12 target events, mean error was 6min02s and the range covered 65%, weighting each athlete equally. Mean total width was 15min10s. The central reference tended to predict 4min01s faster than the actual time.

Within the source conditions accepted by the calculator, there were 36 pairs from 36 athletes: observed coverage of 67%, mean error of 5min40s and mean total width of 14min52s. 1 case was outside these conditions. The results were already examined in earlier research; this is not a new prospective validation. These percentages are neither individual probabilities nor guaranteed maximum errors.

Men Open → Pro: what was the error?

Experimental projection fitted with 271 pairs from 265 athletes. In the full historical comparison, with 200 pairs from 196 athletes at 23 target events, mean error was 5min06s and the range covered 81%, weighting each athlete equally. Mean total width was 15min12s. The central reference tended to predict 2min18s faster than the actual time.

Within the source conditions accepted by the calculator, there were 196 pairs from 192 athletes: observed coverage of 81%, mean error of 5min10s and mean total width of 15min08s. 4 cases were outside these conditions. The results were already examined in earlier research; this is not a new prospective validation. These percentages are neither individual probabilities nor guaranteed maximum errors.

Women Open → Pro: what was the error?

Experimental projection fitted with 78 pairs from 77 athletes. In the full historical comparison, with 68 pairs from 68 athletes at 14 target events, mean error was 6min16s and the range covered 74%, weighting each athlete equally. Mean total width was 14min34s. The central reference tended to predict 1min43s faster than the actual time.

Within the source conditions accepted by the calculator, there were 62 pairs from 62 athletes: observed coverage of 74%, mean error of 5min34s and mean total width of 14min18s. 6 cases were outside these conditions. The results were already examined in earlier research; this is not a new prospective validation. These percentages are neither individual probabilities nor guaranteed maximum errors.

Why does the range change with the profile?

For men's Pro → Open, the model considers time, position in the Pro group, age group, splits and days between entries. In the other three combinations, the ratio is fitted separately by sex and direction using position in the source division; age, splits and interval are verified context, without separate adjustments. Those ranges grow proportionally to the projected time. The relationships do not isolate a change caused only by the other division's weights.

Can I use my own result?

Yes. Search covers all races available in the dataset. The projection uses men's or women's Singles Open or Pro entries with an age group, 17 consistent splits and a verified reference for the same group, sex, division and event. Direction is identified from the selected entry. Experimental ratios show counts even with few cases in a group. You state whether you raced again on the same day. Missing data and contexts outside support receive no projection. Anonymized examples are available for both categories.

The scope of this estimate

HOW TO READ THE RANGE
WITHOUT TURNING IT
INTO A PROMISE.

The central reference summarizes the calculated scenario. The range shows a margin built from errors observed during model development. It can differ on the faster and slower sides.

If a screen shows a 1h30 reference and a 1h22 to 1h39 range, that means 8 minutes on the faster side and 9 on the slower side. An actual 1h35 result would fall inside; 1h42 would fall outside. These examples explain the display and provide no guarantee about your next race.

Mean error summarizes the size of deviations from the central reference in both directions. Coverage describes how many sample results fell inside the range. Historical coverage of 80% does not mean an 80% chance of accuracy for each person.

Anonymized example · Men

Open in 01:21:40

Pro: 1h22 to 1h39

Central reference of 1h30, with 27 days between races in the original scenario. This illustrates the projection; the future result was not observed here.

Anonymized example · Women

Open in 01:31:58

Pro: 1h33 to 1h49

Central reference of 1h40, with 22 days between races in the original scenario. This illustrates the projection; the future result was not observed here.

What our data allows us to say

The fits use Open/Pro result pairs from the same athlete at different events, 7 to 30 days apart, analyzed separately by sex and direction. Level means position within the source division at that event, not an elite or beginner label.

Even within this interval, we do not know every training, recovery and strategy condition. The relationship combines these differences with the division change. It does not measure the isolated effect of Pro weights.

In historical comparisons, athletes and events were held apart from the fitting data. However, these results were already examined in earlier research stages: the check is not equivalent to following a new season with a frozen model.

Where the margin needs more attention

Coverage and error vary across levels and events. With few cases, the ratio is less stable. In some groups, mean error exceeds the Open/Pro difference itself; there the number only explores a scenario and does not support an individual target.

In the three proportional relationships, age, splits and interval are verified context, without separate numerical corrections. The men's Pro → Open fit also uses these factors. Adding an input to the screen does not mean its individual effect has been demonstrated.

Search can find any race available in the dataset, but a projection requires consistent individual data and a comparison group from the same event. Doubles, Relay, another start on the same day and inputs outside model conditions receive no projection. A race from months ago does not establish your current level either.

From projection to your race

UNDERSTAND THE RESULT
YOU HAVE ALREADY BUILT.

Search already lets you find your entry in the available races and view a free preview. To explore further, learn about the paid full assessment.

Start with your race preview

Choose a HYROX edition or partner event. Free search and preview, depending on available data. No registration.

Find my result in the hubExplore the paid full assessment

Buying is a separate decision from the free search.

Independent OUTLIER analysis. HYROX owns the official rankings.